tv Your World With Neil Cavuto FOX News January 28, 2011 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
we are committed to keeping you updated on the changing events. we are monitoring fluid events across the region. it began in tunisia and spread and now our greatest ally among the 80 million people of that region. >>neil: this is an international incident, the state department on twitter saying the violent protests in egypt are of "deep concern." the president obama holding multiple briefings and contingency plans to evacuate american personnel. egyptian president assembling military vehicles. should they be necessary?
there is a curfew in effect. all flights in and out of cairo, stopped. a popular nobel peace laureate under house arrest. and now the entire middle east is on high alert. tunisia is one thing. but this is the land of the pyramids, the arab world's rock, the most populous nation is our most secure friend, concerns this hour this could be our shah moment. you remember this guy? and how his collapse unraveled this guy? could it now be that guy, and he is about to do the same to this guy. welcome, everyone, i am neil cavuto and this is your unstable world today as egyptians revolting, egyptian investors boating, markets there tumbling.
our own dow rumbling, old up, gold up, and still, still, still, no one knows what is up but protests in egypt have had it with crushing poverty and clueless leaders. where have we heard that before? the former head of the c.i.a. osama bin laden unit. i got a deja vu feeling with this. >> what is happening in the middle east is a revolution toward islam unfortunately. and we have put for 50 years all of our cards on dictators and fascists like mr. mubarak and the saudi monarchy and the government of tunisia. it is now slipping away. we have no control over anything. >>neil: you are saying be careful what you wish for if this democratic movement holds and something some say was unleashed by president bush
could be a government or a series of governments across the middle east that would not be friendly to us. >> there is no democratic basis to build on in the middle east. why we think there is, that is because the media talks to people who are westernized and can speak english but the only institutions that can replace fallen governments will be the muslim brotherhood and the other groups of islam with a history of providing social services and stability in the countries. >>neil: we have seen that in scores of countries and iran with the fall of the shah and so man others but as they continue to see this play out even in tunisia where al qaeda has an edge at getting power, what do we do? or let the process unfold. >> i am afraid we can talk about it and mrs. clinton has been schizophrenic because as you
said so much of our economy depends on egypt and this can fall remaining stable there is not a lot we can do, we have becomed the wrong horse for 50 yours and i much whatted mr. gibbs to think the egyptian people are going to forget that we backed dictators for 50 years is a pipe dream. >>neil: play that out. say mubarak, the president is forced out, someone offers him asylum, or worse but he is not long for being a political power. what happens? >> egypt like the other countries in the muslim world since the iranian revolution and the war in afghanistan have been slowly ... what we will see is a more islamic tendency in the governments that take power
within four or five years they will be islamist governments and you can write out the peace process forever and in terms of israel's security, the egyptians willingness to prevent people coming across the border will fall down very quickly. >>neil: you are an excellent scholar of the region so i was going back to my history book in my head which is a c.b.o. -- cobweb and egypt was important forgetting the accords and do you think whatever happens going forward, whether it is rapid or slow moving will be an unfriendlien environment to israel. >> it will be unfriendly to the west and the israels. perhaps not initially but the islamists are the only ones with
institutions that can replace government institutions they have a leg up here and certainly they have no desire to see negotiations with the israelis or even the existence of israel. >>neil: would those protesterring look what happen -- protesters look at what happens when islamists take hold? including what happened in iran, and even with ahmadinejad, that may not be the way to go. >> sometimes we don't realize how fascists and oppressive the government of egypt and algeria and saudi arabia is and i have to say as bad as we judge the iranians, iranians have a much better ability to assemble and talk and protest than any other muslim country in the middle east. scary stuff. thank you for coming here.
amazing. this is indeed a shah moment of the world. he should know because he was one of 52 americans hell -- held hostage in iran for offer 400 days in 1979. i guess i mention the deja vu term. what do you think? >> we saw the story from behind the scenes we were on the ground as the protesters marched down the street to the u.s. embassy and the burning of the american flag looking at the other end of the barrel and i think the people at our u.s. embassy and all of our americans, citizens, students, travelers, business people, in egypt today have a great deal, ought to be concerned. >>neil: i looked for that development today? egypt where they target the u.s.
embassy in cairo or outside or any american institution, there are quite a few american outlets, and even mcdonald's, and that did not happen. it might have and i missed it. but could that happen? >> i'm sorry? >>neil: is the antiamerican rap as strong as you experienced in iran? >>guest: certainly there are many more institutions in place in egypt in cairo that in tehran at the time the ayatollah took over and the shah want into exile. we will see a lot of uncertainty the next few days. it is impossible to put the technology genie back into the bottle and that goes back to tiananmen square and we see the developments occurring where we do not realize as a government, as foreign policy makers in our
u.s. government that the people of these regions are disenfranchised without a voice in government and we have becomed a lot of the wrong mores for many, many years and we use the phrase "he was our dictator." but it has changed. and they are on the ground in cairo where the military is actually moved in to help the local police and we will perhaps see if they take off their uniforms and join the people in the strout as the iranian military when the shah fell. >>neil: when you saw this uprising particularly in iran among young message in 1979 the policy of the u.s. of the cart administration was this is an uprising but hardly something popularly recognized. just loud vocal minority is what the administration's early take. you were saying at the time, no, no, no, this is bigger than
appreciated. did that fall on deaf ears? >> our diplomats on the ground did their best job to communicate back to washington, dc that if the shah was admitted to the issue for medical treatment there could be serious trouble and i would have to say if anyone actually thought the embassy would be seized and we would be held for 14 months we would have cleared out. it was only seven or eight days we had. and we look at the situation in cairo and it's supposedly the opposition leader that many of the islamists will look to and i don't think anyone should be confuseed he gets his power and financing and direction from the ayatollahs in ire ran and our guest was absolutely correct we will see a worse situation come out of the dictatorship that is likely to follow mubarak.
so iran could increasingly be calling the shots in this region >> that is true but look what they have been doing already in the middle east including with hezbollah and hamas and i would point out in iran we saw the ayatollah step forward and endorse the taking of the u.s. embassy and holding of the hostages 444 days and the institutions as our guest mechanicked are not -- our guest mentioned are not in place to take over so the shots have to be called and they are getting money from somewhere and it is coming from tehran and the u.s. missed a prime opportunity as a government to support the green revolution in june of 2009 during the stolen election by ahmadinejad and we sat back and thought everything would take care of itself on its own when we have an point -- important
uponnibility to put forth the free democrat agenda. >>neil: the american personnel still in egypt, what do you recommend? >> well manner security guards are not responsible for external security outside the buildings at our embassies and it is up to the host government to protect our diplomats and our corps but i just don't see the egyptian government able to stand up to the protesters. mubarak will probably end up next -- next i'll and whatever country hends up in will see challenges and uprisings in cairo. >>neil: the americans are on their own. >> we were on our own but we have a rapid deployment force that came out of that failed rescue attempt where the eight
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cut. governor huckabee wonders that might be why the president is astronaut offering specific spending cuts. he is hoping the improving economy, the corporate profits means he doesn't have government interesting argument. >>governor huckabee: but false argument when you owe $14 trillion, you cannot say the economy had an uptick of 3 percent after tanking for a couple of years so now we don't have to talk about spending cuts. we better talk about spending cuts because we are a long way from out of debt. >>neil: are you disturbed by your party? >>governor huckabee: i have for some time and they are disturbed about me so it is mutual. >>neil: my point, governor, and i always say, $4 billion a day we pay interest on the debt, and they cannot agree even on what to cut which is fine, i understand that, but they go out of their way to criticize rand
paul who puts up numbers. >>governor huckabee: you can look at a 10 percent across-the-board cut and the agencies will in the die. they are not. the federal government is bloated. if you look where we were spending back in 2008 and rolled it become, roll it back to 2006, you are talking about a government that was able to get by and there is not an agency in government that has to have all it has. governments operate on the assumption they need to spend all the money in the budget not all the money necessary to do the job. if the agency does not spend the bean counters will say, you did not need but 96 percent so we cut you back 4 percent so they spend all of it and say we barely got it done, we need more to adjust for plagues and the -- for inflation. not true. >>neil: and now we have a global crisis in egypt.
what to you do? we heard "be careful what you wish for," and what we are getting is a more unfriendly view of the united states. >>governor huckabee: this is a huge issue. i hope americans are not saying, egypt does not matter. it matters to americans on a number of fronts. it will impact our economy because oil prices will go up. when the suez canal is threatened and the potential we cannot move products and services through that canal, will have a global impact. but more urgently this could destabilize the middle east. when you take judgment, one of two that give israel stability and you have the hostile nations who could see an opening to use this as a time to go after israel --. >>neil: we had a former iranian hostage said this is all in iran's favor. >>governor huckabee: it is. it takes the attention away from what iran is doing and do not kid yourself.
iran's target is not israel but the united states. the greatest naiveness in america is iranians are after israel, it is us. >>neil: when you look at what we can do, pulling the aid from the egyptians if mubarak does not behave but he could be gone, anyway, what are the options? >> the president is sending a signal, today, by suggesting we are going to suspend the aid and not having a personal conversation mubarak is saying you are on your own. he has said that. that may not be the official diplomatic communication but the message to the world that is understood in every capital and the planet we have said whatever happens, happens and we are not going to fool with it.
while we are putting pressure on them to keep the internet alive, they shut it down. we asked them not to put the military in the streets, they put the military in the streets. they are in the paying attention to us and we are not standing with them. >>neil: thank you, governor. you think they started the inflation fire? with apologies to billy joel, it was always burning. with my suba forester and its all-wheel dre... ... handling even the toughest conditions... is just another day at the beach.
an announcement will be made and we think back to the shah of iran and he fell. he left the country for france and then the united states for medical help and no indication what mr. mubarak will do but it is a good time to step back and look at the global implications. with a big global c.e.o. bill johnson here. and only here. bill, what does this mean to a guy like you? a big global player and now an important part of the globe is dicey. >>guest: this is not beneficial to business. we have a small business in egypt and i had two employees head flood tomorrow and i canceled that trip obviously but it is one of the few places in row that tomatoes develop twice a year so we have developed a crop as a supplier to europe and other areas. it is small and our people are safe but anything that
destabilizes the middle east is a concern to business. >>neil: do you have a lot people in egypt. >> we have a company approaching $100 million and not that many people most in a factory well outside the danger zones but it is something. >>neil: meaning the suez where 13 have been killed. i did ask a guest whether the best thing is to pull members out of there and i guess there are two schools of thought. overreaction? or they look back to the hostage crisis and probably an appropriate reaction? >> we don't have any americans there. our international businesses are run biologicals -- by the locals for this reason. we talked to the man who runs our company today and he was not aware of everything going on because they cut off communication devices.
>>neil: it is uncertainties that derail business plans and everyone's plans and a week ago we just assumed that tunisia could have problems but egypt is safe. so if egypt is not safe i think of saudi arabia why and kuwait and the middle east in general, then what? >> you have destabilization and that becomes uncertainty which causes businesses to pull back and not make investments in the world that can benefit from our investments including u.s. consumers and shareholders so you try to recalculate as to where the money ought to go with the hope that an area of huge growth which the middle east certainly is for businesses like ours is not going to become a long-term issue but will become the kind of issue you can deal with on a short-term basis and move on, but this kind of situation is not good for business. it is not. >>neil: is, say, if it
escalates and shipping is slowed or stopped on the suez canal now you are talking real trouble. >>guest: for some people. for our country ... but anything that affects energy prices. one thing that amazed me the last three months the lack of discussion and discourse in the country about what is happening to energy prices and commodity prices both which are rising very rapidly and both which not only affect our standard of living but endanger the recession we are seeing. >>neil: i thing of stag flation, like we had with jimmy carter and even a recessionary economy and introduced runaway prices. do you think we could be looking at that again? you are right, wheat, bread,
cereal, industrial commodities. they are running up. >> i am not an economist. they are like politicians, i never know what they are saying. the reality of the situation is that we are seeing some inflation. we are seeing it in commodities and in energy. there is the counterpart which is unemployment in the united states at 9. 4 percent and too much capacity --. >>neil: do you pass that on in your business? >> depends on the place, but it is our last recourse but we will have if we have to. >>neil: so you guys are reluctant to open your wallet sitting on $2 trillion in cash, and strategic investments usually abroad, basically you do
not go crazy and other c.e.o.s have been following the same policy but google is doing more, and intel. does something like this give you goes pause? do you close up the wallet? >> i don't think so. we are opening three factories, one in india, one in china shortly and one actually in south carolina that will had 300 jobs in the u.s. but you have to be incredibly selective and incredibly careful because what happens is investments that may have been oriented to some part of the world have to be redirected elsewhere and i think to say we are sitting on our wallets in our business we are looking for places to put money that will give us the kind of returns that we need to enjoy and we have seen in the past. unfortunately that is not all in the united states or the western economies but in the emmessaging -- emerging market and a down side is what we are expense. >> we have had a perfect
interest rate environment with low rates. but that is not going to last. this is the year it starts to unglue. >>guest: i am in the sure we have a perfect interest rate environment. we have low interest rate and how much that is creating a chasing up of the prices is not determined, i hear the economists talk about it, so i am not sure the interest rate environment we have now is conducive to the kind of stable business environment that long term is in our best interest. i recognize i am an anomaly in that regard but i am not sure we are not paving the ground for something we will regret long term. >>neil: and simple question, but when times get dicey, and companies like yours in a weird way benefit, is that true? >> i don't think we benefit from the miseries of others but in
recession people eat, they go to foods they know well, such as heinz were ketchup and they do things if terms of eating more at home and that is beneficial to companies like ours and home cooking now is the new social network where people are meeting friends and family. >>neil: maybe more in the future and an eye on what is going on in cairo and in the suez canal.
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>>neil: egyptian troops clashing with protesters sent in to protect the suez canal and not all the troops, it got divided and weird with police and two million barrels of oil travel through the suez canal each day and if it is shut down, get worried. all bets are off on how high oil could go. crude surging 4 percent today. and just on the fear of that happening. and now, eric, what are you watching as you see this unfold? >> early in the morning we watched the protesting video and oil was $85 a barrel protesting did not do much but later in the day guns were fired and a protest was slot and killed and it upped up a couple of dollars and later when the tanks started to roll down, suez, near the suez canal protests jumping on tanks another $2 and at one
point $4 higher on the day and it is friday. if this goes through the weekend, if monday morning we wake up and this is still video like you are showing or protesters throwing rocks, being shot with guns and water cannons, you could see another $4 or $5 a barrel on monday alone. look at the char. you look at a map the suez canal divides egypt, cairo, from the biggest oil producer on the planet right there, saudi arabia on the other side of the canal. if that spills over into saudi arabia all bets are off. forget $100 a barrel, you could see $200 or $300 a barrel. >>neil: if mubarak resigns this weekend or flees to another country that welcomes him. france. i have no idea. he is out of there. and it is like a tunisia situation where they are scrambling to find a coe --
coalition government possibly even including al qaeda which is the case in tunisia. then what happened? >>guest: if that is the case, if you replace the government you would probably see oil, remember, two weeks ago oil was $92 a barrel. the last two weeks it has gone down, down, down, a nice lower trend. great for the american economy. it looks good at the pump and moving down. and this move up, all bets are up, $10 cent a gallon on the upside. if peace prevails you start the down trend for the short-term until the summer and then it could change. but certainly this has changed the tone of the "market overnight. >> and if this extended to saudi arabia or protected royal families that run various countries including kuwait and united arab emirates, katie bar
the door. >>guest: and on the other side is the straight of hormuz and the persian gulf. it is the middle east. not like a area with a lot of stability to start. it is not a jump to spread into neighboring countries if it were, it could get very ugly and rumors, be careful with this, rumors the muslim brotherhood could be playing part of that and that is scary. it could go on and on and we have to watch and wait-and-see what mubarak decides to do. appointing his son is not an option. >>neil: a quick thing before i let you go, you get what you expect. prices run up but there is a cap on how far they run up because that leads to an economic slow down like the early 1970's and the later 1970's leading to a big slow down that prompts the
pries to collapse like we had with oil in the early 1980's after that. >>guest: in 2008 we said when oil moves up at what price is gasoline so expensive that people drive less and we thought it would be $2.50 and then $3 and we finally reached $4.11 and driving started to slow down but the point is, we are nowhere near that at $930 -- $90 a barrel. at that time it was $147 a barrel. when oil goes up, gas goes up, food goes up, milk, bread, everything goes up and we are trying to recover, it makes a recovery a woman -- a woman lot more difficult. >>neil: to update you we are waiting word that an important matter will be announced in
egypt in a short time and we do not know if that involves president mubarak the source of the conflict and many protests in egypt have been saying his 30 -year rule has to end but egypt as tunisia they were run by those who were dictators, it got bad when their economies get bad. people were, by and large okay with totalitarian regimes if they were working. in other words if it was okay but if tunisia it got pa in the issues -- got pathetic and then people said "to hell with this." and it was the same in egypt, not dealing with clueless powers, but it gets bad when the good economy those in power enjoy crack up.
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talk to your doctor. find out if chantix is right for you. >>neil: what is he doing? what is mubarak doing? we know from the white house spokesman that our president hasn't talked to him today. that is what they said but we have an indication from the parliament speaker in egypt that an announcement is do "shortly." we don't know what that will be but it comes on the day the protests have escalated and 13 have been killed. specifically, in the town of suez. and we did know that the administration, our administration, is looking at blocking $1.5 billion of aid to egypt unless mubarak changes this response. and our democratic congressman from california sits on, among other committees the house
foreign service committee. what do we do if this drags on a couple more days and mubarak does not go? he stays? >>guest: i don't think we know what we will do. this is a very serious short term issue. it could turn into a long term issue. i recall in the 19 70's and the 60's when a suez canal was blocked and you discussed the potential of the embargo and this region has been volatile for a long time and we spend 16 percent to 18 percent of the total defense budget protecting the flow of oil from the persian gulf so this is critical. it speaks to a larger long term issue that we do not have together and that is, energy security here in the united states. fundamental problem for america is our energy system. we have to change, we have to finally get it right.
>>neil: is it your sense, congressman, we just will not give that much money to egypt anymore? >> i don't know what will happen. a lot depends on how the demonstrations work out, the egyptian government, mubarak and others, how do they handle it? bring about more democracy? more openness? we don't know. will the situation settle down? we don't know. we will have to be flexible in the short and very determined in the long term to deal with the energy issues because we cannot allow our nation's security to be at risk by a demonstration in one or another of the middle east countries or in other parts of world and we can do it at the same time create enormous job opportunities and growth in our economy if we put our mind to it. >> it could be the case but i have a couple of regional experts including a former hostage during the iranian
upheaval who said this could be part of a wave and this has a distinct feeling of deja vu. does it? >> it is entirely possible. it is tunisia, egypt, what comes up mention? a lot of countries in the middle east and beyond that are promptly if -- appropriately nervous. you hold people down and they will rise up. that is what we are seeing. but what will be our midterm and long term strategy. these kinds of things have again on now for 40 yours. i am sure you remember and i remember in the 60's and 70's and beyond the kind of disruptions that occur when we are depend on or nearly so on the flow of oil from the middle east or how about the gulf of mexico where 30 percent of our oil, our energy supply was shut down with two hurricanes four years ago. we need to think through an energy policy that puts us on the track to energy security
deals with climate change and a serious conservation move to natural gas and move away from coal and build if the green technology, solar and wind and you have to have a nuclear strategy along the way, one that not only uses the most modern generation three light water reactors but moves ultimately to generation four the kind of reactors that can consume what we now call nuclear waste. >>neil: congressman, we are getting word and appreciate your taking the time that now 20 people have been known to be killed in the violent protests in the town of suez, the birthplace of mubarak, by the way. it roared to life out here. and proved itself here.
>>neil: we are waiting to hear a message from the par element speaker in egypt that could involve not only the whereabouts but the decision of mubarak to remain as egypt's president. he has been in that office for three decades now. came into power after sadat was assassinated and mubarak was behind him, the top serving general. that is then. it is now looking like a public overthrow now. this is very big deal for not only what is going on there, stability in the region, but even in this country here for stability and a nation recovering taking on some strength of late which is why, tomorrow, we are going to be live with a special cost of freedom blog tomorrow, live 10:00 a.m. until 2012 noon look
ing at the program fixes democrat programs and we will look back at the history and what this means. again, a special live cost of freedom joining us tomorrow for all of that and the implications of this. the violence raising fears of a possible power vacuum in egypt. and now, our reporter from washington. >> the situation is described by those monitoring events as fluid and no one can make a final democratation -- determination and there are several possible outcomes and the tipping point could be in 72 hours. that includes identifying the players if mubarak is no longer in power. in other words, who or what will fill the vacuum in egypt? that includes but not limited to the muslim brotherhood which is
illegal in egypt because there is a constitutional ban against religious based parties the brotherhood is seen as the significant opposition. and a man under house arrest and egyptian military because that is important whether mubarak will continue to enjoy the support of that country's military. and there are a number of other markers waged to determine if this will be a successful or self sustaining situation including the size of the demonstrations, whether the demonstrators include a wide age span, showing support is broad and not just limited to one group especially the young. and, also, whether the demonstrations spread from the major urban centers like alexandria and cairo underscoring there is birthday support. given how fluid the situation is now the view is scent could break any number of ways in the next 72 hours. you remember the demonstrations
we saw in iran in 2009 after the election, and those were intense demonstrations and sustained but the region was able -- the regime was able to survive. >>neil: and we were more supportive of the demonstrators and that assured the powers remaining in play. and maybe even foisting this sort of thing today, but it is hard to say. the administration is in a box on this, right? >>reporter: it is difficult position for the administration to be in but i emphasize from the conversations i have had this afternoon they see the situation as extremely involved and extremely fluid and the type of language being used is the situation opt ground in egypt could break any number of ways in the next 72 to 96 hours so one thing the government is trying to do is assess which way it could break, how many obligations there are, who are
people who may emerge in mubarak is for longer the president of egypt. they have to "game" it and then assess and take actions. i note based on my experience overseas, when you start to see signs that communication is being cut, television broadcasts are being cut, these are the tried and true tactics of dick tea parties and -- dictators when there is a severe crack down because they cut the communication, limit the access of tv coverage because they want to minimize the extent to which their actions are exposeed. >>neil: thank you, catherine. now what? >> well, over the next 72 hours she made a great point we will see, but my big fear is we are seeing something that is similar to the 1979 iranian revolution
which started with average iranians frustrated about the repressive regime of the shah and the economy and they took to the streets and that revolution was co-opted by the ayatollah and the islamic jihadist in iran and my concern here in egypt and it is inspiring to hear the call for democracy and freedom but the must lynn -- the muslim brotherhood could move in, fill that power vacuum, and turn egypt into an islamic state that is not in our interest. and mubarak, as bad as he is, has helped against the fight against al qaeda and he has a peace treaty with israel. >>neil: if you are saudi arabia, kuwait, united arab emirates, what? >>reporter: you scared. i would say right now they are
frightened. jordan is seeing uprising, yemen is, tunisia, obviously, and i have to say with the egypt situation egypt is the most influential country, arab country, in the middle east, and the old saying goes, as egypt goes, so goes the middle east. i have to say, iran, right now, is kind of sitting back and smiling at these developments and the iranian-state run media is crawling it a revolution, a victory for the egyptian people and iran, mubarak region if it is knocked down and he has to plead, say the muslim brotherhood, iran sees that as a step if their quest for regional domination and they become more of a player with their egypt rival knocked down a peg. >>neil: scary stuff. and we will go like into the